VNM / Equity research

The economics behind the value

Vinamilk · Historical evidence, explicit assumptions, and a traceable FCFF valuation.

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Start here: what could one share be worth?

The model estimates the cash the business could generate, then works out the portion belonging to one share.

Follow the money through one forecast year

These are calculated examples from your selected assumptions, not reported results. VND tn means trillion đồng; 1 tn = 1,000 billion đồng.

Metric dictionary · search a term you do not understand

Methodology: Damodaran financial definitions · Cash-flow valuation. Examples describe this model’s conventions.

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What business are you buying?

Products, customers, operations and the links to valuation.

01

Understand the historical economics

Has growth kept pace with profitability, and what supports the next decade?

Historical operating statements
02

Normalize the starting point

Separate filed results, external estimates, and the model’s FY2026 starting assumptions.

03

Forecast operating performance

Revenue growth fades over ten years. Reinvestment is driven by marginal sales to capital.

Inspect the full forecast and discount factors
Revenueₜ = Revenueₜ₋₁ × (1 + growthₜ) EBITₜ = Revenueₜ × operating marginₜ NOPATₜ = EBITₜ × (1 − marginal tax) Reinvestmentₜ = ΔRevenueₜ ÷ marginal Sales / Capital FCFFₜ = NOPATₜ − Reinvestmentₜ PV FCFFₜ = FCFFₜ ÷ ∏(1 + WACCᵢ)
04

Price the risk explicitly

A VND risk-free framework, operating beta, country exposure, and financing weights.

The method changes CRP. The sovereign default-spread deduction is held fixed across methods so the comparison isolates equity country risk.

WACC formulas and methodology
VND risk-free proxy = VND 10Y sovereign yield − selected sovereign default-spread deduction Relevered beta = cash-adjusted sector unlevered beta × [1 + (1 − tax) × D/E] Cost of equity = risk-free proxy + relevered beta × mature ERP + country exposure × CRP Market equity = reference share price × accepted shares After-tax debt cost = pre-tax debt cost × (1 − tax) WACC = E/(D+E) × cost of equity + D/(D+E) × after-tax debt cost

The supplied CDS spread is used as a proxy deduction, not a verified local-currency spread. The yield and spreads have different dates. Review currency, tenor and sovereign-risk compatibility before adopting the construction. Debt uses a book-value proxy because market debt prices are absent.

Review / edit the WACC components and their evidence
05

Define a sustainable terminal state

Growth requires reinvestment. Stable ROIC determines how much profit remains available as cash.

Terminal reinvestment rate = stable growth / stable ROIC Terminal FCFF = Revenue₂₀₃₇ × stable margin × (1 − tax) × (1 − g / ROIC) Terminal value₂₀₃₆ = FCFF₂₀₃₇ / (stable WACC − g)

06

Discount the cash flows

How much value comes from the explicit forecast, and how much depends on the terminal state?

07

Bridge operating value to equity

Add cash once, reconcile non-operating assets, then deduct minority and other claims.

08

Stress-test the investment case

Every sensitivity cell and scenario runs the same deterministic valuation engine.

WACC × terminal growth

Columns shift the entire WACC path in parallel; labels show stable WACC. Rows also change the growth fade and terminal reinvestment. Click a cell to inspect its calculation.

Outlined: accepted assumptions. Amber underline: closest cell to the dated market reference.

Inspect sensitivity rows
Scenario assumptions and full calculation trace

Base uses the database’s central operating ranges. Financing and bridge inputs follow the accepted case. Current user assumptions remain separate. Conservative/Optimistic combine operating ranges with rating/CDS risk methods.

Model integrity

Research gaps & source limitations

Assumption acceptance trail
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Vietnam company research library

Browse the market, highlight your research, and keep financial-statement and story dates separate.

Market-cap ranks use one dated provider cross-section. Industry classifications and ranks are screening aids, not investment conclusions. A highlighted company has a research record; that does not certify current inputs.

Directory coverage, logos & refresh sources

Tracking is saved in this browser. Export it to keep a portable copy in your research library.

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Shared macro & industry evidence

Reusable reference data for future companies, with dated observations and archived source files.

Vietnam macro observations and international industry benchmarks answer different questions. The figures below do not automatically replace accepted company assumptions. Annual macro history may lag current conditions; use the source register for newer official releases.

Vietnam macro catalogue

Browse every available indicator by decision category. The latest observation shows its period, not the download date.

Inspect selected history & source IDs

Dairy & packaged-food cause-and-effect library

Observed market series are separated from transmission hypotheses. A rising proxy does not prove Vinamilk's realized cost changed by the same amount.

Coverage, raw sources and limitations

Industry benchmarks

Cells retain their own source dates. Global ROIC workbook is labelled January 2025 while several other workbooks are January 2026. Open a row for full provenance and valuation cautions.

Source register · how to return and update

Downloaded datasets and manual research sources are distinguished. Refresh commands preserve raw snapshots and do not overwrite company assumptions.

python3 library/scripts/refresh_shared.py · Rebuild with python3 upgrade/scripts/build.py. See LIBRARY.md for setup.

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Does this follow Damodaran, step by step?

Independent arithmetic reconciliation and a clear distinction between implemented formulas and unresolved economic evidence.

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Your Vietnam research library

Company records, research notes, and reproducible valuation snapshots.

VNM is the working valuation template. Other companies can be registered in the library; company-specific evidence and model review are required before valuation.

Research notebook

Thesis, catalysts, questions, and filing references. Saved in this browser; export research for a portable backup.

Saved valuations

Each snapshot preserves assumptions, method, database identity and calculated outputs.

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Evidence database

Observation history is append-only. Forecast vintages remain separate records.

VNM research template · Local, offline-capable application · Source records are preserved as supplied. The connected quote is the latest available provider observation and may be delayed. Other financial and market inputs retain their source dates.

Research export

Inspect / select export content
PDF report

Choose report depth

The next step opens the browser print window. Choose Save as PDF as the destination. The PDF uses your current accepted assumptions and recalculated charts.

Private browser notes, saved valuations, the raw database explorer, Company Library and Macro Library are excluded from both PDF formats. Enable Headers and footers in the print settings when you want browser-generated page numbers.